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|Subject: Natalka goldmine, Evgeny Morozov of UBS Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:19 pm|| |
Aussage zu UBS AG Gold Natalka goldmine, Evgeny Morozov of UBS
By John Helmer, Moscow
Tod Browning was an American filmmaker of the early 20th century who suffered from circus obsessions,
alcohol, wife and career troubles, which distracted him from showing an interest in the Russian
revolution. While the Bolsheviks were planning their takeover of the Kerensky government, Browning
made his first feature film. Called Jim Bludso, the story line was about a riverboat captain who sacrificed
himself to save the lives of the boat passengers during a fire. It was a hit of sorts.
What made Browning’s lasting fame, but also his notoriety, plus the booze problem, was his interest in
circus freaks. His only remembered film in our time, titled Freaks (see image), is about a fulsome woman
who falls for a rich midget, spurning the not so well-off circus giant. But then she mocks her husband and
his mini-mates, who discover that she’s trying to poison him and inherit his money. She suffers a
gruesome end at their hands, along with the strongman. Her feet are melted to the appearance of a
duck’s; the giant’s penis is cut off. To make such a film acceptable to American audiences of 1932, the
horrid bits were cut out.
Polyus Gold, Russia’s leading goldminer, is a bit like that.
When one of its owners, Russian giant Mikhail Prokhorov (front row far right), this week admitted to
feeling a little guilty for some of his company’s “mistakes”, the Moscow and London sharemarkets
responded with thumbs down. Since Prokhorov removed his longtime subordinate, Evgeny Ivanov, and
became chief executive himself on December 9, the Polyus Gold share price has started moving down –
even though the price of gold has gone both up and down, and the Russian Trading System (RTS) index
for the Moscow stockmarket has grown 3%.
One month Polyus gold share price chart
Why, Prokhorov was asked by a friendly Moscow newspaper this week, has he taken operational control
at Polyus Gold? He answered: “In the near future there is a lot to be done with the company. Some
important projects will require my personal strong involvement.” By this he means his attempt –
announced through Bloomberg on December 8 – to secure a primary London Stock Exchange listing,
and then sell out to “one of the leading gold companies in the world”.
Although Prokhorov has been chairman of the Polyus Gold board, and kept Ivanov on a very short leash,
Prokhorov claimed this week, “some mistakes were made, flaws – now they have been corrected. I feel
partially guilty that I did not ensure that management could work normally.” The blame, Prokhorov
intimated, was either Ivanov’s, or Vladimir Potanin’s, but not his own. Potanin was Prokhorov’s onetime
partner and co-owner of Polyus Gold. “I’m better than anyone else, [so I] will join the team. In regard to
the withdrawal of the company to the international level [it] is critical to do so as soon as possible.” The
evidence of Russian goldminers who have sold assets to Polyus Gold in the past is that Prokhorov
always dominated Ivanov, and took for himself a bigger share of the succcess bonus than he allowed his
One of the questions the international miners have always asked when they have examined Polyus Gold
is whether Prokhorov has been over-valuing the assets. Then there was the problem of asset-stripping,
evidence of which was charged against Prokhorov and Ivanov by Potanin and independent shareholders
The bigger share of blame for mistakes like these, if they have happened, ought to be Prokhorov’s. At
least this appears to be what the stockmarkets suspect. Since Prokhorov’s headlining of himself on
December 9, Polyus Gold’s share price has been something short of a hit. But then comparing
Prokhorov’s mining company to its peers, it’s dwarfed in relation to those internationals most likely to be
interested in buying what Prokhorov says he is selling this time round. As this chart, prepared by UBS
suggests, the share price to earnings ratio for Polyus Gold this year is projected to be 26.6. LEIDER
KEIN DATUM, Bericht ist aber vom 2019.
Is it possible for Polyus Gold and Jennington, the Prokhorov companies, to have miscalculated with such
big numbers as the Assaubayev goldmining vehicles, Romanshorn, Roman Altyn and Norox Mining are
now pledging to repay? And if mistakes like that really happened, what asset valuation mistakes might
Prokhorov be capable of inside his very own Polyus Gold, on the Russian side of the frontier?
According to the UBS report, the outcome between Prokhorov, the Assaubayev family and the Kazakh
government is a deal in which “Polyus Gold will not incur any economic loss as a result...Eventually
Polyus will have a Jersey registered company with cash on its books, which may become a consolidation
centre for the company during the reverse takeover of Kazakh Gold by Polyus at a later stage.”
Ten days after Prokhorov declared he is winding up his KazakhGold problems, he announced a new set
of estimates and projections for the Natalka goldmine project.
The good news is that Natalka is now estimated to be capable of producing 1.5 million oz of gold per
annum for the life of the mine; this compares with 1.2 million oz which Polyus Gold currently produces
from all operations (70% of that comes from the declining Olimpiada mine). Also, the expert estimates
suggest the average grade for Natalka’s life of mine production will be 2 grams per tonne, rather than the
1.13 g./t target previously announced. Inside this average figure, however, it turns out, the company now
acknowledges, that the grades will be lower in the initial phase of mining than it has previously
suggested. This in turn suggests that mine output may be lower, and mine costs higher.
The not so good news is also that the project start-up is delayed for so long beyond previous targets,
Prokhorov’s intention may be to sell out of the company beforehand. In that event, who knows when
Natalka may produce?
Vladimir Zhukov, the metals analyst for Nomura in Moscow, reports this week: “The largest negative
surprise of the new management guidance for phase one [of the Natalka mine plan] is a significant
reduction of gold grade, gold output and a resulting increase in cash cost... While disappointing, we
believe that the bulk of potential negative surprises for Natalka has been exhausted and we have now
much more confidence in the new numbers provided...
In terms of positives, we highlight the improved overall parameters of the mine with now higher life-of-
mine ore grades and sustainability of the reserve base at much more reasonable cut-off grade
assumption. In our view, a significant downgrade of the operating parameters for phase one owes to the
choice of a very conservative mining plan, which suggests the possibility of upside surprises once actual
mining is launched.”
According to Morozov of UBS: “we believe the market is accounting only for a minimal value of the
Natalka mine, foreseeing complexity and numerous problems related to it. It appears to us that the real
work on Natalka will occur only in 2012-13 when there could be a new management team in place as the
result of a potential merger with another major gold producer. Thus, we see the Natalka mine as the
function of a potential merger. Should Polyus obtain a more experienced management team with a
stronger ability to deliver growth, the market would start to price in more value for Natalka due to lower
That’s the polite way of saying that what the market really thinks of Prokhorov as a goldminer is that it is
waiting for him to sell out and go away. Far away.
Damit ist für mich das Thema Bank UBS AG in Zusammenarbeit mit Russland erledigt.
Russian Mikhail Prokhorov = Einer der grössten Investors in Prager Immobilien
Morozov = Foto liegt mir vor
Gemeinschaftspraxis Morozova Morozov
Deutschherrnpfad 14, 66117 Saarbrücken, Germany
+49 681 9542840
Konstantin Morozov on Instagram: “#guccichallenge @gucci”
https://www.instagram.com › BftnNjUlvhy - Translate this page
Feb 27, 2018 - 250 Likes, 3 Comments - Konstantin Morozov (@the_constantin) on Instagram:
Curriculum vitaeof K.N.Morozov
07.08.1961 – born in Kuibyshev (now Samara), Russia1978 – finished secondary school1979-1981 –
obligatory military service in Soviet Army1982-1983 – study at the preparatory department of Kuibyshev
(Samara) state university1983-1988 – study at the History department of Kuibyshev (Samara) state
university1988-1992 – worked as a lecturer at the Department of history of Povolzhie Institute
ofcommunication (Samara)1990 – entered extra-mural post-graduate courses of Samara state
university1992-1993 – worked as a teacher of history in Moscow secondary school1993-1994 – worked
in the publication department of State archive of Russian Federation1993-1995 – worked as a research
worker and academic secretary in Institute for national problems of education, Ministry of education1994-
1995 – chairman of Organizational committee of scientific conference and compilerof its materials (see:
Individual political terror in Russia: Materials of conference / Compiled byK.Morozov. M., “Memorial”,
1995)1995 – defended Doctor (
) dissertation at Samara state university on thetheme “Party of socialist-revolutionaries in 1907-
1914”Since January 1996 – worked as a lecturer at the Department of Russian history of Moscowstate
N.Bauman technical university2000 – was awarded academic status of Dozent (senior lecturer) of
History department1999-2005 – worked as a senior lecturer (Dozent) at the Department of Russian
history ofMoscow state N.Bauman technical university1999-2000 – worked as invited lecturer at the
department of History of world civilizationsof Moscow city pedagogical universitySince January 2002 –
participant (since August 2002 – chief) of working group “Socialistsand anarchists – members of the
opposition to the Soviet regime (1917 – the end of the 30s of theXXth century)” of Scientific-research and
elucidative center “Memorial” (Moscow)2002-2005 - elaborated the conception, composed and wrote the
introduction (in co-authorship), editor-in-chief of the first volume
of digital variant of biographicaldictionary “Socialist resistance to the soviet regime (October 25 1917 –
the end of the 30es)”
Assaubayev goldmining vehicles, Romanshorn, unter Sharewood Switzerland AG.
Seestrasse 473, 8038 Zürich
Kanat Assaubayev is one of Kazakhstan's leading entrepreneurs in the natural resources sector. Mr.
Assaubayev was the first Kazakh to receive a doctorate in metallurgy. His early career was in academia
where he was the Chairman of the Metallurgy and Mining Department of Kazakh National Polytechnic
University. He subsequently began his business career in the 1990s and has led a number of natural
resources enterprises to national and international success.
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549